dfs picking the best qb nfl strategy

How Much Should You Be Spending on a DFS QB, and How Many Points Should They Get You?

October 22, 2018

If you are like me, every week you sit at your computer, going back and forth trying to decide how much to spend on a Quarterback.

Should I spend up and get a stud or just save the money for another position?

Quarterbacks typically score the most on fantasy teams because the ball is in their hands every snap.

The tough part is that all Quarterbacks are capable of scoring points easily, so the difference between the highest scoring Quarterback is not that far off from the middle of the pack.

Yes, you get the outlier every week where one Quarterback goes absolutely nuts and drops 40 points.

Should I Spend More for a Good Quarterback in DFS? 

Just because you spend up does not mean that is going to be the Quarterback to do it. Most of the time it is a dark horse who breaks the stat sheet.

Personally, I got tired of trying to decide how much I should spend on a Quarterback so I broke down the numbers.

We have been through six weeks of the season so far so the sample size is large enough to react to the trends of the Quarterback position.

Side note: This information is based on Draftkings salaries allocated to Quarterbacks as well as the point system they use. If you normally play fanduel scoring you can see the difference in scoring here.

The scoring is pretty much the same on both platforms, as you probably noticed the only difference is that you get 3 bonus points if your Quarterback throws over 300 yards.

Common Strategies for Picking Quarterbacks in DFS 

When it comes to Quarterbacks many DFS players have a two main strategies they use on a weekly basis.

  1. Pay up for a Quarterback to maximize points at the position
  2. Safe on a Quarterback to spend salaries at other positions

Like we talked about before, everyone is stuck deciding which of the two strategies to use which can be very stressful.

However, there is another popular strategy in DFS, many players aim for a multiplier return on their picks, 3x is a great multiplier to aim for. (It’s really a 0.003x multiplier)

For example, if you purchase Tom Brady priced at $6,600, you are looking for him to score 19.8 points (6.6*3) not 19,800 points (6,600*3) as some of you may have been thinking.

This is a great way to look at a Quarterback’s value but the problem is that the lower priced Quarterbacks will not score as much with the same multiplier. The Quarterbacks will have to have a greater multiplier in order to score as much.  

Example:

  • Tom Brady at $6,600 with 3x multiplier = 19.8 points
  • Blake Bortles at $5,500 with 3x multiplier = 16.5 points

For Blake Bortles to be worth it, he would have to have a multiplier of 3.6 (5.5*3.6=19.8) to get the same return as Tom Brady.

Lower priced Quarterbacks need a higher multiplier for them to provide true value.

The main goal is picking players that maximize points not a multiplier.

How do you do that? Let’s find out!

DFS Quarterback Breakdown – How Many Points Should Your DFS Quarterback Get? 

The price range for Quarterbacks that are considered by DFS players using Draftkings are anywhere from $7,000 – $5,000.

Since player’s salaries change each week, I took the average of each Quarterbacks salary over the 6 weeks of the NFL season.

Quarterback Average Cost Average Points
Drew Brees $6,700 27.00
Tom Brady $6,700 21.24
Cam Newton $6,400 24.42
Deshaun Watson $6,400 22.87
Kirk Cousins $6,300 24.06
Jared Goff $6,200 23.20
Matt Stafford $6,000 19.64
Andrew Luck $5,900 23.20
Alex Smith $5,700 16.40
Blake Bortles $5,500 21.31
Mitch Trubisky $5,400 23.36
Joe Flacco $5,300 18.53

*Bye weeks may affect scoring, Winston and Wentz are not considered because of the limited playing time, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers are on bye this week.

Breaking Quarterbacks Into Tiers Based on Price 

As the table shows, the price of a Quarterback does not directly correlate to the amount of points he scores.

Tom Brady is among the most expensive Quarterbacks, but is among the lowest scoring Quarterbacks so far this season.

Mitch Trubisky is one of the cheapest Quarterbacks this season and he has been the fourth highest scoring Quarterback.

There are three tiers of pricing for Quarterbacks on any given week.

  • $6,500
  • $6,000
  • $5,500

These tiers are rounded because salaries vary, some weeks players are more expensive while others they are cheaper.

What to Expect From Each Tier of Quarterback

So naturally, the next question we asked was, “How many fantasy points do quarterbacks from each tier produce on average?”

The results are actually pretty shocking. Here is what we found:

  • Quarterbacks costing around $6,500 are averaging 23.88 points so far this season.
  • Quarterbacks costing around $6,000 are averaging 22.84 points so far this season.
  • Quarterbacks costing around $5,500 are averaging 19.90 points so far this season.  

Although there is a large deficit when it comes to cost, the points scored are not that different.

A Quarterback that costs $6,500 is only scoring 1 more point on average than a Quarterback which costs $6,000.

This is actually the range I went with for my lineups for this week (Week 7 2018) by using Cam Newton (5900) and Carson Wentz (6000) as my quarterbacks. They ended up doing very well:

  • Cam Newton ended up getting 25.66 points
  • Carson Wentz got 22.7 points

Wentz almost hit the $6000 price range projections right on the head, and Newton was a nice upside surprise.

There is a bit of a drop off when you start to get into the $5,500 price range, leaving 3 – 4 points on the board by not spending up for a Quarterback but what you save can be spent elsewhere.

How Many Points to Expect From an Expensive Quarterback

If you spend up on a Quarterback you should project your Quarterback to have at least 24 points.

24 points should be the expected floor of the Quarterback if you spending $6,500+.

If you are saving at Quarterback you should expect around 20 points.

Generally, you should be looking for your Quarterback to score 24-20 points a week based on how much you spend.

Should I Pay for a More Expensive Quarterback in DFS, or Save? 

Saving at Quarterback and allocating the leftover funds to other positions can improve your team immensely.

Other skill positions like receivers and running backs are more valuable because the scoring varies more from, running back to running back than Quarterback to Quarterback.

Like we stated earlier, most Quarterbacks score around the same amount of points and the data backs it up. There is only a 4 point difference between the most expensive and the cheapest Quarterbacks on average this season.

FOUR POINTS!!!

If you save $1,000 on Quarterback choosing a player who is lower priced, you can use that $1,000 to pick a stud receiver or running back opposed to an average one.

Spending $5,500 – $6,000 is the optimal range to purchase a Quarterback in order to get the most value at the position.

It makes much more sense to save at Quarterback because the position is so deep and to pay up for running backs or receivers.

Running backs and receivers do not have as much depth as Quarterbacks so these are the key positions you want to exploit your opponents.

If you can outscore your opponents at skill positions and save on a Quarterback you have a much greater chance at winning.

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