We have some wonderful Turkey Day football folks. Basically a full week of football. Monday Night Football tonight should be one for the ages to end Week 11 with the Chiefs heading into LA to take on the Rams in a battle of 9 – 1 teams.
Thursday we have a 3 game slate for Thanksgiving and a decent 10 game slate on Sunday. Only two teams will be on bye for Week 12, the Rams and Chiefs ( I know, it’s always SO fun when they take the 2 best teams off our DraftKings slates.)
Matthew Stafford, who is on this slate, is the all time leading passer on Thanksgiving, with 2,469 yards. That includes a 309 yards per game average over his 8 career Thanksgiving Day starts.
Let’s hop right into the article and find some plays that you can be thankful for.
Drew Brees (6700) NO vs ATL
Drew Brees has been putting on a clinic this season, and has put in a season worthy of one of the best MVP races we’ve ever seen (thanks to Mahomes as well.) On the year, Brees has thrown for 2,964 yards, 25 touchdowns, 1 interception, with a 77% completion rate and a 127 passer rating. The 39 year old is having the best season of his life leading the number 1 offense in the NFL. Over the past 3 games, the Saints are averaging 48 points per game and Brees is averaging 32.1 FPPG on DraftKings. He is very worthy of his QB-leading $6700 salary at home in what could be another shootout with the Falcons. Definitely my favorite game on the slate by a mile.
Matt Ryan (6100) ATL @ NO
Matt Ryan is having an incredible year. All those Drew Brees stats are ridiculous, but what matters most is fantasy points, and both Brees and Matt Ryan are averaging the exact same 25.6 FPPG this season. Matt Ryan has the most passing yards in the league this season (as of the time writing this, Pat Mahomes plays tonight with a good shot to pull ahead) and had his best game of the year the last time these two teams met (43 fantasy points!) The Saints defense has been playing better since then, but I think Matt Ryan will find a way to move the ball well. I’m leaning towards Matt Ryan as my favorite quarterback to start on this slate.
Mitchell Trubisky (5900) CHI @ DET
On this slate I don’t really love the cheaper quarterbacks, and since it’s so close I’m most likely paying up for either Brees or Ryan, but Trubisky is a solid option at 5900. Averaging 24 FPPG, Trubisky has a plus matchup against a weaker Detroit defense. Trubisky had his second best game of his career in this matchup 2 weeks ago dropping 39 fantasy points and scoring 4 touchdowns. Coming off one of his shakier starts of the season, I think you can still play Trubisky with confidence.
Alvin Kamara (8300) NO vs ATL
By far my favorite player on this slate, Kamara is way too cheap at 8300. Zeke just put up 200+ yards on the Falcons, and the last time these two teams played, Kamara had 20 targets and 15 catches on his way to 37 fantasy points. Atlanta has allowed a top 12 running back in 9 of 10 games so far this season, and they have a good chance of allowing 2 this week. Kamara is my favorite running back for the entire Week 12, not just on this slate. Yeah, he’s going into my lineup.
Tarik Cohen (5300) CHI @ DET
Cohen has been solid lately, and is an elite playmaker that can always break one. Last time against Detroit, Cohen saw 7 targets which is in line with what I’m projecting for this matchup. There isn’t a linebacker on Detroit that can stay with him, and I think we see a 35+ yard play from Cohen in this matchup. Running back is a bit thin on this slate.
Adrian Peterson (5100) WAS @ DAL
Yo Adrian! Peterson has performed way above expectations this year and definitely has not looked like a 33 year old running back. Averaging 72.3 yards per game and with 7 touchdowns on the season, it’s been great to see AP succeed. The Redskins also should be getting stud LT Trent Williams back this week to open up some more running lanes for AP.
Theo Riddick (4500) DET vs CHI
This will mostly come down to Kerryon Johnson’s (knee) health. Riddick is averaging 6 catches per game over his last 3 games. He hasn’t been extremely productive with that work, but on a weaker RB slate, at 4500, you can do a lot worse than Theo Riddick.
Julio Jones (8300) ATL @ NO
Michael Thomas (8900) is just a bit too expensive for me on this slate, where I want to pay up at RB and QB. Julio has been almost as good, and provides salary relief and doesn’t carry the same negative blowout potential that Michael Thomas does. MT is still a dominant play this week, I just don’t see myself pulling the trigger at $8900. Julio, on the other hand, has 5 straight games over 21 FPPG and 100 receiving yards, and has scored a touchdown 3 weeks in a row. Marshon Lattimore is fine, but he won’t be enough to slow down Julio, who’s averaging 116 receiving YPG this season.
Kenny Golladay (6400) DET vs CHI
Finally. Yes, Kenny Golladay is one of my favorite players but he deserves to be on this list, my bias aside. Kenny G has seen 27 targets over the last 2 weeks. That’s more than Julio (20) Michael Thomas (12) and everyone else in the NFL. One of those games also came against this week’s opponent, the Bears, where he caught 6 of 13 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. The last of the big 3 receivers on the Lions either healthy, or on the team, Golladay should be a volume beast again on Thanksgiving.
Calvin Ridley (5400) ATL @ NO
Calvin Ridley’s coming out party, his welcome to the NFL, if you will, was week 3 in this same matchup vs the Saints. They had no answers for him as he hung 8 – 146 – 3 on them. It’s two different teams than at that point of the season, and I’m sure Ridley won’t surprise the Saints this time around, but I still like the play a lot. Ridley has cooled off a bit since then, but hasn’t had a game with less than 3 catches since that game either.
Tre’Quan Smith (4700) NO vs ATL
So…Tre’Quan had a nice game in Week 11. That is putting it a little bit lightly. Tre’Quan had zero targets against Cincinnati, and comes back with 13 targets this week, catching 10 of them for 157 yards and a touchdown. Smith shared a cool tidbit from the game, where he said Drew Brees met him in the endzone after his touchdown and said “You know why I threw that ball to you? Because I trust you.” Having the trust of an MVP caliber QB on the best offense in the league is extremely valuable, and the rookie third round pick is an incredible talent.
Anthony Miller (4400) CHI @ DET
Anthony Miller plays 71% of his snaps in the slot. Trubisky, despite being 18th in passing yards has thrown for the 5th most yards and the 2nd most TDs to slot WRs this year. Scored a touchdown again in week 11. I have a thing for the guy.
Jordan Reed (4700) WAS @ DAL
Reed’s been awful all year, but is coming off his best game of the season. Alex Smith is done for the year and there seems to be a bit of chemistry between Jordan Reed and Colt McCoy. I don’t hate Reed this week.
Austin Hooper (4200) ATL @ NO
Awful TE slate for Thanksgiving, Hooper has seen 19 targets in the last 2 weeks. That’s incredible for this TE group.
Geoff Swaim (2700) DAL vs WAS
I always want to give you a cheap/punt option at tight end because it’s often a solid strategy to use. My favorite punt TE this week is Geoff Swaim at only 2700. He’s only seeing about 4 targets per game and there isn’t incredible upside, but there’s a chance to hit 8-10 fantasy points.
CHICAGO (2900) CHI @ DET
Best defense on the slate against a banged up offense and weak offensive line. Khalil Mack is never a bad way to go.
DALLAS (3200) DAL vs WAS
It’s Colt McCoy plus an injured offensive line at home.
WASHINGTON (2600) WAS @ DAL
It’s Dak Prescott! Washington defense has actually been very strong in fantasy putting up 10+ in 4 of the last 5 weeks.
How to Win Money on DraftKings in NFL DFS
That’s what I found on DraftKings for my favorite values this week. I’d love to hear from you guys on some other potential values that you guys are seeing and let me know your favorite QB-WR stacks for the week. Tweet me your lineups @hydeandzeke and we’ll sweat it out together!
An Example Week 12 DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup That I Could Use: