nfl dfs week 12 draftkings lineup value picks 2018

The Best Value Picks for DraftKings DFS Week 12 – Thanksgiving

November 19, 2018

Quarterbacks

Ben Roethlisberger (6100) PIT @ DEN

Averaging more points this season than Drew Brees and Matt Ryan (25.9) Ben Roethlisberger is semi-quietly putting together a solid season. He’s had a pretty dominant floor (16) and ceiling (42) so far. After struggling early in Jacksonville, Ben actually found his way to a solid fantasy outing with 26.6 points. This matchup isn’t particularly scary with Denver, as Philip Rivers just threw for 400 yards against them last week, and Ben has much better weapons than Rivers. I like this spot for Ben to get 22-27 fantasy points.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

24/34 322 yards 3 TD 1 INT

Russell Wilson (5600) SEA @ CAR

Talk about hyper efficient. Wilson hasn’t thrown the ball 40 times in a game once this season, yet he’s thrown 2+ TD’s in 9/10 games this season. The reason I was off Russell early in the season is the opposite of the reason I AM on him now. Russell stopped running the ball frequently, running for 42 total yards in the first 5 games. In the last 3 games, Wilson has ran the ball 19 times for 150 yards, and thrown 3+ touchdowns in 4 of his last 6 games. Russell is a great bet for 20 fantasy points at a cheap price tag.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

19/30 277 yards 2 TD 33 rushing yards

Baker Mayfield (5500) CLE @ CIN

I prefer Russell at 5600, but Baker is in a great spot this weak against a terrible Cincinnati pass defense. Coming off his best performance as a pro, Baker is spreading the ball around well and making good decisions. Baker has also thrown multiple touchdowns in 4 straight weeks.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

24/33 271 yards 2 TD 1 INT

Running Backs 

Melvin Gordon (8600) LAC vs ARI

I think Melvin Gordon has the highest raw projected total on this slate at RB, and comes at a $500 discount to Saquon Barkley. Averages 27 fantasy points per game, vs a bottom 5 run defense, this is a no brainer.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

18 carries 113 yards 2 TD’s 4 targets 4 catches 46 yards

James Conner (7800) PIT @ DEN

The Broncos are a very soft rush defense through 10 games this season. James Conner did very little against a very tough Jacksonville defense last week, but that shouldn’t be the case this week. Conner has been awesome all year, and I think this is a great spot for Conner to hit 120+ total yards and a touchdown.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

19 carries 84 yards 1 TD 7 targets 5 catches 61 yards

David Johnson (7300) ARI @ LAC

David Johnson had another monster game for new OC Byron Leftwich, rushing 25 times for 137 yards. He also had a 50 yard touchdown called back on a holding penalty that occured way after DJ broke free. Third week in a row DJ makes it into this column, because he is still underpriced.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

19 carries 92 yards 1 TD 5 targets 4 catches 43 yards

Nick Chubb (6300) CLE @ CIN

Nick Chubb comes off his best game as a pro where he ran for 176 yards and caught 3 passes. The workload is RB1 level, Chubb has seen 18+ carries in 4 straight games. The matchup is amazing against a Cincinnati team that just got embarassed on the ground by a guy named Gus Edwards.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

21 carries 104 yards 1 TD 2 targets 2 catches 15 yards

Sony Michel (5800) NE @ NYJ

Sony Michel just needed a few weeks to be fully healed up from that knee injury. Prior to suffering that injury, Sony Michel was playing at RB1 level rattling off multiple 100 yard games, and getting solid goal line work in a high powered offense. The Patriots are looking to make a statement against a division rival after getting beat badly by the Titans. Look for the Pats to lean on Michel in this one.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

14 carries 72 yards 1 TD

Marlon Mack (5500) MIA @ IND

One of my favorite plays of the week, this is a combination of matchup and offensive line. The perennially awful Colts O-Line has turned into a group of maulers this season, becoming one of the top units in the NFL. There’s miles of running room behind first round standout Quenton Nelson, and Mack will take advantage in this one.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

20 carries 117 yards 1 TD

Gus Edwards (4400) BAL vs OAK

Remember that Gus Edwards guy? Well I kinda actually like him this week against an Oakland team that just gave up 137 yards to David Johnson. It’s looking like Flacco will need a few more weeks to deal with that hip injury, so we should see another dose of Lamar Jackson. That works out very favorably for the Ravens running game, and the downhill running Gus Edwards is a great complement to how they want this offense to run with Jackson under center. After running for 115 yards and a touchdown last week, Edwards has a great opportunity to pay off value at 4400. Just keep in mind that coaches will now have a week to break down Lamar Jackson film, and might come with a better gameplan to stop the rushing quarterback and alter the offense entirely.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

13 carries 64 yards

Josh Adams (3800) PHI vs NYG

Adams is averaging 7.0 yards per carry over his last 3 games. The Eagles badly need to establish a running game, and Adams is far and away their best option. Adams got 10 touches vs the Saints and was their lone bright spot, getting 10 total touches, for 72 yards and a touchdown.

Wide Receivers

Odell Beckham (8800) NYG @ PHI

This Philly secondary was just ROASTED by Tre’Quan Smith and Michael Thomas for almost 250 yards and 2 touchdowns. The secondary is plagued with a ton of injuries and Odell should feast.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

12 targets 7 catches 131 yards 1 TD

Mike Evans (7700) TB vs SF

This man does not get talked about enough. 120+ receiving yards in 40% of his games this year, Mike Evans is averaging 96 YPG on the season and has done it with the carousel that is Tampa Bay quarterbacks. This secondary was just torched by Odell Beckham the last time they played, and I’m expecting much of the same from Mike Evans.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

9 targets 7 catches 93 yards

Keenan Allen (7100) LAC vs ARI

Can you say second half player? Last year Keenan Allen was the WR1 from Week 9 on. Since Week 9 this year, Allen has averaged 90 receiving yards per game, on 7 catches/game and has scored twice. Allen has another great spot this week, with another cheap salary.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

11 targets 8 catches 79 yards 1 TD

Tyler Boyd (6000) CIN vs CLE

Tyler Boyd, and the entire Bengals offense is much more productive when AJ Green is on the field and can take pressure off him. However, it looks like AJ Green is ready to return this week, and Boyd is coming off an 11 target game. The Browns are much more vulnerable to passing attacks from the slot than the outside, and game script should set up favorably for Boyd.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

8 targets 7 catches 91 yards

Doug Baldwin (5100) SEA @ CAR

Doug Baldwin: “Thursday last week was the first day I woke up in the morning and I didn’t feel pain,” he told 710 ESPN Seattle’s “Bob, Groz and Tom” show. “I’ve been dealing with this for four months, and I forgot what it felt like to not have pain.” Baldwin definitely looked to finally be healthy after displaying incredibly smooth cuts and even got into the end zone last week against the Packers.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

8 targets 8 catches 79 yards 1 TD

DJ Moore (4600) CAR vs SEA

We wrote up DJ Moore twice last week guys. He went bananas. Moore received 8 targets, taking 7 of them 157 yards and scoring 1 touchdown. The first round pick looks to be gaining the confidence of Cam Newton and has been showing his elite talent. I’ll take the talent and 31 point ceiling for $4600 this week.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

6 targets 5 catches 71 yards

Marcell Ateman (3100) OAK @ BAL

Marcell Ateman reminds me of that Gif of John Travolta:

week 12 dfs draftkings value picks

There’s no one left in the Oakland receiving room. Amari traded, Nelson retired, Martavis injured, Lafell injured. That leaves Marcell Ateman and Seth Roberts as the top 2 options for Oakland. Mike Clay, who I really respect in this industry turned me onto Ateman’s game, and I like how much Carr was looking for Ateman late in the game on Sunday.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

8 targets 6 catches 70 yards

Tight Ends

George Kittle (6200) SF @ TB

Kittle has been a beast this year averaging 15.4 FPPG, but that number is up to 20.4 FPPG with Nick Mullens at QB. Mullens looks Kittle’s way early and often (10 targets last week) and Kittle produces. Not afraid to pay up for Kittle this week.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

9 targets 6 catches 74 yards 1 TD

Jack Doyle (4100) IND vs MIA

Doyle is the preferred tight end for the Colts, as he has now played the most snaps and run the most routes in 3 straight games. The offense is producing at a top 5 level and I’m not a huge fan of this TE slate. Give me the proven, reliable Doyle. Doyle Rules!

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

6 targets 5 catches 55 yards

David Njoku (3800) CLE @ CIN

Going back to the well here guys, I just can’t shake this man! The talent is off the charts, the situation should be there, and there was a large target share earlier in the season. At 3800 I’m fine with it. I’m ready to be burned by Njoku again.

Cody’s Week 12 Projection:

5 targets 4 catches 79 yards

DEFENSE/ST

RAVENS (3300) BAL vs OAK

Derek Carr with Doug Martin, Jalen Richard, Jared Cook, Seth Roberts and Marcell Ateman as his weapons. In Baltimore.

BILLS (2700) BUF vs JAX

Blake Bortles has been really bad, and I think it will be difficult for Jacksonville to travel from sunny Florida to 25 degree Buffalo. The wheels also may have officially come off after losing to Pittsburgh last week.

How to Win Money on DraftKings in NFL DFS

That’s what I found on DraftKings for my favorite values this week. I’d love to hear from you guys on some other potential values that you guys are seeing and let me know your favorite QB-WR stacks for the week. Tweet me your lineups @hydeandzeke and we’ll sweat it out together!

An Example Week 12 DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup That I Could Use:

 

draftkings dfs thanksgiving week 12 lineup

 

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