DFS Value Picks Week 3 2019

September 15, 2019

Tough Week 2 in cash. The chalk was very boom or bust, and depending on which plays you made, you either had a great week, or a tough encore to opening weekend.

This article is made to highlight some value DFS plays in the NFL on Draftkings for Week 3.

Now if you’re new here, this guide goes hand in hand (that expression looks way weirder to type than when I hear it) with my Youtube channel that you should check out if you haven’t right here. 

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdq1-EHByxclHUTOVgI12AQ

This article is meant to be your guide to find the best values for the week with a little bit more precision than in the videos.

This is meant for people who like making their own decisions, but like to see some great options and reasonings why. 

PSA: We’re doing things a bit differently today. A few notes on each player. This is a tough week, and if you want to hear my thought process on things you’ll have to come over to my Youtube channel to get that. Videos all week, and live streaming where you can ask me your questions in real time Thursday and Sunday before kickoff. 

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott (6500) DAL vs MIA

Prescott has been an absolute monster in 2019, largely due to the addition of Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator. Zeke seems to be back to his full time role which is great for this offense, and the Dolphins look like an NCAA team playing against NFL teams through the first two weeks of the NFL season. Averaging 3.5 passing TDs per game in early 2019, the Dolphins shouldn’t do too much to slow down that pace.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

22/30 277 yards 3 TD’s 32 rushing yards

Josh Allen (5900) BUF vs CIN

Allen is averaging a healthy 21.1 Fantasy points per game through 2 games in 2019. Another soft opponent is on deck. The Bengals just made Jimmy G look like his mentor in Tom Brady. Allen looks to be creating a legitimate rapport with newcomers John Brown and Cole Beasley, and always offers upside with his legs.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

21/34 314 yards 2 TD’s 40 rushing yards 1 INT

Kyler Murray (5800) ARI vs CAR

Kyler Murray played against one of the best defenses in his second NFL game and played phenomenally. Throwing for over 300 yards in his first two games as a pro, Murray looked much better in week 2, and improved his completion percentage by almost 10%, and throwing for an extra 40 yards. More deep shots were taken and completed, and we haven’t seen close to a ceiling game from Kyler yet. The rushing yards and touchdowns will come.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

26/38 289 yards 2 TDs 46 rushing yards 1 INT

Jameis Winston (5400) TB vs NYG

Jameis has been anything but successful in fantasy so far in 2019. The matchup in Week 3 might be exactly what he needs. Dak Prescott and Josh Allen have looked like Dan Marino and Joe Montana through 2 weeks against this Giants defense. I think Jameis, with his weapons, can do the same.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

25/38 302 yards 2 TDs 1 INT

Running Backs

Aaron Jones (6100) GB vs DEN

We finally got to see what a legitimate workload would look like for Aaron Jones, and boy was it beautiful. 27 total touches. 23 carries, 4 catches on 6 targets. It resulted in 28 Draftkings points thanks to 116 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

18 carries 94 yards 4 targets 3 catches 33 yards

Marlon Mack (5800) IND vs ATL

After a stellar week 1 performance, Mack came crashing down to earth in a tougher Week 2 matchup. I think Mack gets back on track at home in week 3. The encouraging thing was the 22 more touches that Mack had in week 2, to go along with his 25 week 1 touches. At 5800, locking in 20-25 touches in a decent matchup is pretty worthwhile.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

21 carries 101 yards 1 TD 

Carlos Hyde (4500) HOU @ LAC

This man’s name has been slandered all offseason, but he’s handled 67% of Houston’s running back carries through 2 weeks, and is coming off a 20 carry performance. The Chargers got ran all over by Marlon Mack in week 1, a similar player type. I can see Hyde being a value at 4500.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

17 carries 84 yards 1 TD 

Royce Freeman (4400) DEN @ GB 

The Broncos quietly have a pretty significant battle going on in their backfield between Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. Freeman has been the more effective back through 2 weeks, and is even starting to see an uptick in passing down work. Dalvin Cook just ran for 150+ yards against this GB defense, so the matchup doesn’t exactly scare me.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

11 carries 56 yards 1 TD 7 targets 5 catches 54 yards

Phillip Lindsay (4300) DEN @ GB

It seems that we’re in full blown committee mode now. At least it’s only 2 running backs though instead of the awful 3. Lindsay still should see the 55% of the 55/45 split, and we know how explosive he can be if he finds a crease. With the Packers’ having 2 great young CB’s on the outside, look for the Broncos to try to lean on Lindsay and Freeman

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

17 carries 109 yards 1 TD 1 target 1 catch 13 yards

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen (7000) LAC vs HOU

Keenan saw a whopping 15 targets in week 2. That adds to his 10 he saw in week 1. Without Hunter Henry and Melvin Gordon, Allen is going to be an absolute target monster. 7000 is just way too cheap for the type of volume that Allen should see.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

13 targets 9 catches 117 yards

DJ Moore (5900) CAR @ ARI

The explosive plays that DJ Moore is known for will come. The 24 targets through 2 games make Moore a crazy value at 5900. The downside, has been Cam Newton who has not looked right as a passer so far this season. The Cardinal secondary should remedy a few of those problems, and DJ Moore has a chance to show off his unbelievable YAC ability in this one for a monster day.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

9 targets 6 catches 112 yards 1 TD

Mecole Hardman (5000) KC vs BAL

Yes I’m a bit bias. Mecole was my 3rd favorite WR prospect (for fantasy purposes) coming into 2019 but you’re starting to see why. Mahomes looks like he’s playing against air, and can just throw the ball wherever he wants on every play. Hardman saw 6 targets and had a solid 16 point day on Draftkings. The day, however could have been, 17.2 points HIGHER, because Hardman had a 72 yards bomb touchdown called back on an iffy holding penalty. Mahomes and his track team of weapons shouldn’t be slowed too much by this Baltimore team that just gave up 350 passing yards to Kyler Murray. Volume will be hard to project, but Hardman has more home run hitting ability than even the likes of Desean Jackson, with Mahomes as his quarterback.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

5 targets 4 catches 92 yards

Christian Kirk (5000) ARI vs CAR

Kirk has been everything we’ve wanted in his second season so far. Averaging 10 targets a game, and the chemistry with QB Kyler Murray looked vastly improved in Week 2. This will be a high octane passing offense, that should keep Kirk in that 8-11 target range for the foreseeable future. That kind of volume is too great to pass up at 5000.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

10 targets 6 catches 71 yards 1 TD

Deebo Samuel (4500) SF vs PIT

Deebo! The talented second round pick made the most of his 29 snaps by putting up 5-87-1 on his way to a 20 point day. The matchup is decent in Week 3, and the 49ers should have to continue to pass the ball. Look for Samuel to get better as the season goes on, the kid is special.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

6 targets 5 catches 73 yards

Tight Ends

Evan Engram (5200) NYG @ TB

Engram was mega chalk in Week 2 with Sterling Shepard being out, and he was my cash game tight end. He laid a monster egg, largely due to the defense being not even a little bit afraid of Eli and company beating them deep. We can see similar issues continuing, but Engram is too good at this price point. The Bucs just let old man Greg Olsen get over 100 receiving yards on Thursday, and Engram should see his typical 10 target workload. Eli will hold him back, but I like this value.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

11 targets 8 catches 75 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard (3800) TB vs NYG

Call me a mad man, I’m going back to the OJ Howard well in week 3. He is just way too talented to be an in-line blocking TE, and I think Bruce Arians and company figure that out in Week 3. I believed in him coming into this season, and I need more than 2 weeks to be swayed off my opinion. I’ll take the talent at 3800.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

5 targets 3 catches 51 yards 1 TD

Greg Olsen (3700) CAR @ ARI

The old man’s still got it. 9 targets turned into 6 catches and 110 yards on Thursday. Now Olsen gets probably the easiest matchup vs Tight Ends in 2019, with the Arizona Cardinals. Look to continue rolling Olsen out with confidence.

Cody’s Week 3 Projection:

8 targets 6 catches 76 yards 

Defense/ST

New England Patriots (3800) NE vs NYJ

 

Los Angeles Chargers (2500) LAC vs HOU

 

How to Win Money on DraftKings in NFL DFS 

WEEK 3 BABY! IT’S HERE!!! This is what I found on DraftKings for my favorite values in this lovely week 3. I’d love to hear from you guys on some other potential values that you guys are seeing and let me know your favorite QB-WR stacks for the week. Tweet me your lineups @hydeandzeke and we’ll sweat it out together! And come on over to Youtube if you aren’t subscribed already!

An Example Week 3 DFS Lineup that I Could Use:

 

 

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